To win, you've got to endure an incredibly loooooooong race, a then a few small steeps. That kills off many of your pure sprinters. That favors:
Boonen. He's come very close and has listed this as a major goal. I really like him for this year's MSR. He's got a superb team to back him and the full support of his Belgian bosses. If I had to take one guy, he'd be my pick.
Petacchi. 35 yrs old but still a fast mo-fo.
Pozzato. A puncher who can also sprint. Might be the one to watch, if things get shaken up. Very confident as has set huge goals for this season. Might be my number two.
Bennati. My gut says "no, not yet." My gut says "not ready yet, and hasn't yet won something big." Everyone, everyone, everyone says he's the sprinter to pick. I'm just not feeling it.
Haussler. Too young. I love the Aussie-German kid but I just don't think he's experienced or strong enough yet to take a race this competitive.
Hushovd. What a guy. Just getting better and better. Watch out for him in the classics. He can climb well, maintain his stamina, then kill you in the sprint. Foolish to bet against him. If he improves on last year's form, he'll have some big spring results. Could be my number three pick.
Lorenzetto. Talented, but not enough stuff for this race.
Alan Davis. Man, the guy's fast, can take small climbs, keeps his endurance, and has a wicked finish. He's come close before. His only drawback is being on Boonen's team and having to make way for Boonen. Could easily finish top ten or top five.
Rebellin. The old man just won't slow down! Phenomenal legs and brilliant bike IQ. Could easily land in the top 10 with his form, but lacks the oomph to win a sprint. He'll try to get away late, and he's got plenty of firepower on his team to help.
Cavendish. Sorry, bud. Yer too young and too weak on the climbs. I see him trailing in way down the line.
Gilbert. Hot, confident, and talented. A serious puncher to watch out for. He's come close and he knows how to get away. He's got loads of strength and a fast kick. Something tells me he goes too soon and gets eaten up before the end...
Elmiger. He's the right age, he's done well in this race, and he gets better every year. One of these days he's going to win something big and get the respect he deserves... but this race is out of his reach.
Breschel. Wonder boy from 2008 hasn't shown up yet this year.
McEwen. The downhill slide has begun. He's still a fast-comer, but he just doesn't have the juice for these climbs and miles, and he's losing a bit of his burst.
Ciolek. I love this kid, but he crashed recently and is too young.
Team MILRAM. Although Ciolek probably can't do much, I think we'll hear from these guys. Wegmann is a big talent, and I like young Peter Velits and Nikki Terpstra too. The latter guys are too young to win it, but they might create a stir. Wegmann, though, on the right day, could really get in the mix.
Koldo Fernandez. The guy is a real underachiever. But he can actually stick in there for the climbs and he's got a good kick.
Nocentini. A lovely rider. Like a course with some climbs and he's got a fairly fast finish. Can he get away and stay away? Probably not against this field, but look for him to be active.
The Unknown Italian. The prestige of this race: fame for life, if you're an Italian winner, is seriously motivating. There are always two or three Italians who sneak into the top ten.
Flecha. Nope: sorry, not enough speed or getaway speed. Ditto for Nuyens. DiLuca's not there yet, and his best may be behind him. Farrar won't hang for the long haul. Cunego can't get away. Nor Basso. Visconti and Garzelli might make some noise, before dying. Paolini to me was sort of a flash in the pan--I just don't believe in him.
So let's call it Boonen's year. I can't wait to find out.
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